Statistics › Section N · Counting, Bayesian inference, and multiple regression › Topic N.3
Bayesian estimation of a proportion
Estimating a proportion is the classic Bayesian laboratory: a family of priors called beta makes the updating arithmetic almost trivially simple - add the data's successes and failures to the prior's, and read off updated beliefs about p.
In this topic
- The beta prior
- Conjugate updating
- Worked example: a website's click-through rate
- Credible intervals
- Predicting the next visitor
- A/B tests, the Bayesian way
- Worked example: shrinkage and the one-review restaurant
- Common mistakes to avoid
- Key takeaways
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